A year after United States President Donald Trump returned to the White House, Pakistan appears to be among the quiet beneficiaries of a significant shift in Washington’s strategic thinking.
The newly released 2026 United States National Defence Strategy (NDS) signals a departure from Washington’s decades-old posture of viewing China as the primary global threat, a recalibration that Pakistani officials and analysts say eases Islamabad’s foreign policy challenges.
When Trump assumed office for his second term, there was visible unease in Pakistan. With US forces already withdrawn from Afghanistan and Trump’s “America First” doctrine back in play, many in Islamabad feared renewed marginalisation.
Prevailing assessments suggested that Washington would further deepen strategic ties with India, intensify pressure on Pakistan and pursue a more confrontational approach toward China, a scenario that would have complicated Pakistan’s delicate regional balancing act.
However, developments over the past year have unfolded differently. Pakistan has seen an improvement in engagement with the Trump administration, while India-US relations have shown signs of strain.
The release of the 2026 Defence Strategy has further reinforced this trend, offering what officials describe as “strategic breathing space” for Islamabad.
At the core of the new policy is a redefinition of US threat perception. Unlike previous strategies, particularly the 2022 defence strategy issued under the Biden administration, which explicitly termed China the “most consequential strategic competitor”, the 2026 document avoids framing Beijing as an existential enemy.
The strategy makes clear that Washington is not seeking confrontation with China, nor does it aim to weaken or isolate it.
It said the US does not seek to dominate, humiliate or strangle China but “to ensure that neither China nor anyone else can dominate us or our allies”.
Instead, the US wants “a decent peace, on terms favourable to Americans but that China can also accept and live under”, the blueprint said, adding that, therefore, the US would deter China by “strength, not confrontation”.
For Pakistan, this shift is particularly significant. Islamabad has consistently sought to avoid being drawn into great-power rivalries, especially the US–China competition, given its close strategic partnership with Beijing.
A confrontational US posture toward China has historically placed Pakistan in a difficult position, forcing it to navigate between its relationship with Washington and its long-standing ties with Beijing.
‘Diplomatic space’
A senior Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the new US approach makes Pakistan’s foreign policy “less stressful.”
“If the United States is no longer seeking confrontation with China, it reduces pressure on countries like Pakistan that have strong relations with Beijing. This approach gives us greater diplomatic space,” the official said.
“To me, the US strategy is all about biding time to devise ways to counter China and retain its supremacy. Trump is playing smartly. China understands the game,” said Abdul Basit, former diplomat, who served as Pakistan’s Ambassador to India and Germany.
“So, for now, we wouldn’t be seeing the two countries ratcheting up bilateral tensions to an irredeemable point. This is good for Pakistan so long as it lasts,” he told The Express Tribune.
Another notable aspect of the 2026 defence strategy is what it does not mention. India, frequently highlighted in previous US policy documents, is entirely absent from the 24-page strategy. The document also makes no reference to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a grouping that includes the US, India, Japan and Australia, and which had featured prominently in earlier Indo-Pacific frameworks.
This omission has drawn attention in Islamabad. Under the Biden administration, India was repeatedly described as a major defence partner and a key pillar of US strategy in Asia. The absence of India from the latest strategy suggests a recalibration of Washington’s regional priorities.
Pakistani officials see this as another positive development. An unnamed senior official said the lack of emphasis on India reduces regional imbalance.
“The fact that India does not figure even once in the defence strategy is important. It indicates that Washington no longer views India as central to its China policy. That is a welcome development for Pakistan,” the official said.
Analysts believe this change is linked directly to Washington’s softer framing of China. With Beijing no longer portrayed as the primary threat, the strategic utility of India, previously positioned as a counterweight, appears diminished.
Despite these positive signals, observers caution against assuming permanence. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is widely viewed as transactional and personality-driven, raising questions about the durability of the shift once his term ends.
Security analysts note that the US strategic doctrine has historically swung with changes in administration. A future White House could revert to a more traditional posture that once again casts China as the central adversary, potentially reviving earlier alliance-based containment strategies.
“This strategy reflects Trump’s worldview rather than a permanent transformation of US grand strategy,” another official remarked. “Pakistan should benefit from the current environment but remain cautious about long-term assumptions.”
For now, however, the 2026 US Defence Strategy appears to align with Pakistan’s long-standing preference for strategic neutrality amid great-power competition. By reducing emphasis on confrontation with China and avoiding explicit alignment with India, Washington has inadvertently made Pakistan’s regional diplomacy more manageable, at least for the duration of Trump’s term.
“It remains imperative for us to continue nurturing our strategic partnership with China. The US will likely undergo many a transition internally and externally as the completion gets fierce and pressures build up all around,” Ambassador Basit concluded.
Emerging diplomatic role
Jalil Abbas Jilani, former foreign secretary, who also served as foreign minister during a caretaker government, said that although the US defence strategy announced in 2022 explicitly mentioned China as the primary threat, the latest strategy does not list China in the same category.
However, the new strategy continues to list China as the main competitor. It also emphasises defending US interests in the Indo-Pacific region and deterring China through strength, not confrontation.
He noted that it calls for maintaining military balance in the region to prevent dominance by China over the US or its allies.
He further observed that, interestingly, whereas in the past senior US officials would consistently express concerns over growing Pakistan-China relations, CPEC and related issues, such concerns have somewhat receded over the last year.
“Obviously, we need to draw a lot of satisfaction from this shift. This will allow Pakistan to pursue its strategic interests vis-a- vis China while building a strong partnership with the US.”
“In the context of China, the pressure on Pakistan appears to be receding due to a desire on the part of the Trump administration to lower tensions with China. There is also a realisation in the US that Pakistan could be a helpful partner to defuse tensions not only with China but also with Iran and the Middle East as well.”
“As you are aware, in the past, Pakistan-US relations have been negatively affected by four factors: Pakistan’s relationship with China, the development of US-India relations since the mid-1990s, Afghanistan, and the nuclear factor.”
He observed that the deepening Indo-US strategic partnership – marked by a growing convergence of interests vis-a-vis China, the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement, logistics and intelligence-sharing frameworks such as BECA and COMCASA, India’s designation as a net security provider, and its incorporation into groupings like the QUAD and I2U2 – has generated a great deal of insecurity not only in Pakistan but also across smaller South Asian states.
However, under the Trump administration, there appears to be a slight shift away from India. The US administration has openly declared that “strategic altruism” that India enjoyed for a long time will be replaced by “strategic reciprocity”.
“Many in the US have questioned the credibility of India as a partner due to its opposition to the US sponsored resolutions against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, non-acknowledgment of the US role in de-escalation of tension between Pakistan and India in May last year and Tariff issues and Indian ability-to act as a net security provider in the region,” he added.
