Pakistan in the Crosswinds

Iran is facing a real and growing possibility of a direct military attack, with consequences that could redefine regional stability. If such a conflict erupts, Pakistan and the Gulf states will be among the first and hardest hit. Afghanistan, already fractured and unstable, would face even deeper and more unpredictable complications, with immediate spill over for its neighbours. Geography alone dictates that the security, economies, and internal stability of these countries are closely tied to what happens next. While the initial shock would stretch from South Asia to the Middle East, its aftershocks would travel far beyond the region, unsettling an already fragile global order. The risk is heightened by the convergence of President Trump’s unpredictable decision-making style and Israel’s hard-line security doctrine, a combination that has already pushed regional tensions into dangerous territory.

A conflict of this magnitude would place severe strain on the region, with consequences that remain largely unaddressed. It is therefore concerning that Pakistan’s media, social networks, and even parts of the academic community are approaching an issue with clear existential dimensions so casually. Pakistan’s official stance has been articulated with clarity, but it does not yet reflect the full scale of disruption that a conflict involving Iran would unleash. With President Trump’s unpredictable and coercive style of decision-making, assumptions of restraint are risky, particularly when ccurrent signals increasingly point toward an attempt to force Iran into total submission, an approach that historically invites confrontation. This issue must therefore dominate Pakistan’s national discourse and its international engagement. Our diplomats have to move beyond routine language or passive signalling to convey urgency, consequence, and clarity across all major capitals and multilateral forums.
Iran is now under intense and overlapping pressure from the United States and Israel, following years of sustained coercion that has escalated rapidly in recent days to a dangerously high level.

Covert attacks, intelligence penetration including cyberattacks, economic strangulation, and open military signalling have all intensified to a dangerous level. Reports of Israeli-linked networks operating inside Iran, including the recruitment of vulnerable segment of society suggest that the ground has already been prepared.

If these pressures escalate into open confrontation, especially involving the United States, the international system risks hardening into opposing camps, reviving a style of global division that the post-war order was meant to prevent.

It must also be understood that Iran is not a fragile or collapsing society waiting to be undone by pressure or even war. The Iranian people have lived under severe sanctions for more than four decades, absorbing economic hardship with a level of resilience few societies have displayed. Iran is an old civilisation with a strong sense of identity, history, and national pride, and when faced with an external threat of this magnitude, most Iranians instinctively rally behind the state out of civilizational self-preservation.

Ironically, a war intended to restrain Iran may produce the opposite outcome and it could push not only Iran, but other technologically capable states without nuclear weapons, to reconsider their restraint.
Much attention has been given to the presence of Chinese and Russian naval vessels conducting routine exercises with the Iranian navy. While these deployments carry symbolic value, they do not in themselves constitute a credible deterrent against an impending attack. Such movements are standard military signalling and fall short of the kind of explicit political and strategic communication tha…