As election day looms, the world braces for the finale of a campaign unlike any before. It’s been a razor-thin race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with twists and turns still to come as polls close on 5 November.
A guide to election night timings
Here’s what to expect as results begin to trickle in:
First exit poll data arrives
After months of speculation, we’ll get our first real look at what voters have decided as exit poll data is released. Unlike UK polls, which project a final result right as polls close, American exit polls provide insights into voters’ concerns and priorities, later breaking down by demographics to show trends across key voting groups.
Expect frequent mentions of seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – which are crucial and could swing Republican (red) or Democrat (blue). These battleground states are a focus for both campaigns.
East Coast closes and counting begins
Polls first close in states like Indiana, Kentucky, and Virginia, but these aren’t swing states, so results are predictable. However, polls will also close in the first swing state of the night: Georgia. With its 16 critical electoral votes, a win here for either candidate could signal the night’s direction.
Georgia, narrowly won by Joe Biden in 2020, was also mired in false claims of fraud. The candidate with the majority here will collect 16 of the 538 electoral college votes needed to reach 270 – the target to win the White House.
At 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT), polls in North Carolina close. While the presidential race dominates, the governor’s race here has also drawn attention, as state Attorney General Josh Stein faces Trump-backed candidate Mark Robinson, whose campaign has seen its share of scandals. Ohio polls will close at the same time, where Trump’s running mate JD Vance is a senator.
Projected winners and media calls
Around now, major US media outlets may start “calling” results, projecting winners based on exit polls and early vote counts, even before full counts are complete. This is done when they judge one candidate’s lead to be insurmountable, though in close swing states, a call may take much longer. The BBC will rely on data from Edison Research to make these projections.
Pennsylvania and the Rust Belt’s influence
At 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT), more polls close, including in Pennsylvania, the largest of the swing states with 19 electoral votes. This state, part of the industrial Rust Belt, has seen its manufacturing base decline in recent years. Counties like Erie and Northampton may play pivotal roles.
Around 20:30 EST (01:30 GMT), we expect more exit poll insights into voters’ backgrounds, including age, race, and education levels. This provisional data will be refined in the coming weeks.
Close races and the midnight oil
At 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT), more swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin finish voting, as does Arizona, which has been a flashpoint in the immigration debate. An hour later, Nevada polls close, where both candidates have courted working-class voters with promises to end tip taxes.
Waiting for the West Coast results
As the night wears on, at 23:00 EDT (04:00 GMT), polls close across the remaining mainland states, with Hawaii and Alaska wrapping up at 00:00 EDT and 01:00 EDT (05:00 and 06:00 GMT), respectively.
In past elections, the race was often called soon after polls closed in California. But this year, a quick resolution seems unlikely, with many observers expecting days – or possibly longer – before a winner is declared.
The rise in postal voting in recent elections has slowed the count, as each state sets its own timetable for processing these ballots. A candidate’s early in-person lead may give way to a postal vote surge, making early counts misleading.
Beyond the presidency: Congressional and abortion votes
While attention centres on the White House, voters are also electing all 435 members of the House of Representatives, along with 34 Senate seats. Congress controls legislation and funding, and the president’s party often relies on support in both chambers to pass key policies.
Some states, including Arizona, Florida, and Montana, will also hold referendums on abortion rights, a particularly emotive issue in this election.
The long wait
If you’re still awake as dawn approaches, patience may be necessary – this election’s final result could take a while. In 2020, projections in Pennsylvania and Nevada were made four days after election day, with Arizona following a week later.
A tight race could bring back memories of 2020’s delayed result or even 2000’s disputed Bush-Gore contest, which was ultimately settled by the US Supreme Court.
The neck-and-neck polling suggests 2024 may be a close race, potentially leaving room for legal challenges from either side. So election night might just be the beginning of the next chapter in this year’s political drama, not the final word.
