Standing on recently gained credibility following its conflict with India, Pakistan is positioning itself among emerging global defence exporters, as the country lines up potential defence export orders worth $13 billion, a scale that could materially alter its external account dynamics and industrial landscape over the medium term.<\/p>\n
“Post the success of Bunyan-e-Marsoos, Pakistan has seen a massive boost to its diplomatic standing with geo-strategic deals and engagements; a key outcome which is emerging from these engagements is the defence deals and defence agreements,” noted KTrade Securities Research Analyst M Faran Khan in a report.<\/p>\n
According to a macro research note by KTrade Securities, Pakistan’s defence sector is entering a phase of accelerated outward orientation, driven by rising geopolitical demand, the successful deployment of indigenous platforms, and expanding state-to-state defence engagements across the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia. The estimated $13 billion pipeline includes fighter aircraft, trainer jets, armoured vehicles, drones, naval platforms and ammunition. If materialised, this would be equivalent to more than 80% of Pakistan’s current foreign exchange reserves and around 3.7% of gross domestic product.<\/p>\n
This prospective surge comes against a backdrop of historically modest defence exports. Data from the United Nations COMTRADE database, compiled by Trading Economics, shows that Pakistan’s exports of arms and ammunition, parts and accessories stood at $22.38 million in 2024. Over the past decade, annual exports in this category have largely remained in the low tens of millions of dollars, underscoring the step-change implied by the current pipeline of deals.<\/p>\n
Analysts say the difference this time lies in scale, geopolitical timing and the maturity of Pakistan’s defence platforms. Flagship products such as the JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter aircraft, Super Mushshak trainer aircraft, Karakoram-8 (K-8) jets, armed and reconnaissance drones, armoured vehicles and naval vessels are increasingly being marketed as cost-effective alternatives for countries seeking to diversify suppliers amid rising global defence spending.<\/p>\n
So far, Pakistan’s defence exports remain overwhelmingly state-led, with production concentrated in military-run or government-owned entities. These include the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) at Kamra, Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) at Wah, and Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW). These organisations design, manufacture and export jets, tanks, drones, naval platforms and ammunition under government-to-government frameworks.<\/p>\n
However, Farhan said that Pakistan’s private sector is expected to gradually enter the defence value chain, initially as a subcontractor to military-led organisations.<\/p>\n
“At the moment, the army-led organisations are producing the jets, tanks, drones and other sensitive equipment,” Farhan said. “But with time, Pakistan’s private sector will also get into this business as a subcontractor to these organisations, depending on the sensitivity of the equipment.”<\/p>\n
He added that Pakistan could follow a model closer to that of the United States, where universities and research institutions play a role in research and development, particularly in software, electronics and advanced engineering, while private firms participate in hardware manufacturing, systems integration and services. “On American lines, universities can contribute to R&D for software and hardware, and then the private sector can also contribute along those lines,” he said.<\/p>\n
The research suggests that such a transition would not only expand export capacity but also create recurring revenue streams through after-sales services, maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), training, spare parts and upgrades \u2013 areas that often generate long-term dollar inflows beyond initial equipment sales. The broader macroeconomic implications could be significant. Pakistan’s total goods and services exports currently stand near $37 billion annually, dominated by textiles and agriculture. A successful expansion of defence exports would help diversify the export base, reduce vulnerability to commodity cycles and ease pressure on the balance of payments.<\/p>\n
Moreover, KTrade Securities believes a stronger defence manufacturing ecosystem could generate spillover benefits for civilian technology sectors, including avionics, robotics, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, while supporting skilled employment and industrial upgrading.<\/p>\n
While the $13 billion figure remains a pipeline estimate rather than realised exports, analysts say even partial execution would mark a structural shift for Pakistan, from a marginal arms exporter to a meaningful participant in the global defence market.<\/p>\n
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